SZENARIO BASED STRATEGIZING
ADDING RIGOR TO YOUR SCENARIO WORK
Applying STRATEGY EXPLORATION to scenario work is a very popular approach. It is not identical with many other methods for scenario planning. Keep reading to find out why.
For deeper understanding of the mentioned tools please refer to the Strategy PlayCards in the section SERVICES / FORMATS.
A typical project includes the following steps.
1. Decision Architecture
Definition of your problem, your goals and how we achieve them. This step also includes the project reporting frame work.
2. Key Driver Analysis
This analysis helps you to illustrate the interplay of multiple factors and identifies the big levers. It shows you which levers you should focus on in your strategy and which you need to cope with in your environment.
3. Scenario Space
This is where STRATEGY EXPLORATION differs significantly from other scenario planning. The first step is to use the key drivers carved out in the previous step. The second step lists many different variations these drivers could develop into. The resulting matrix is called a SCENARIO SPACE, typically containing thousands of thinkable scenario combinations. With the help of a consistency analysis this highly complex SCENARIO SPACE is reduced to the most relevant scenarios.
4. Consistency Map
The most consistent and hence most relevant scenarios are put into a graphic resembling islands in an ocean. The benefit of this map is that key scenarios can be located and compared to each other more easily. The result of the map discussion is a handful of archetype scenarios. Scenarios that you regard as very relevant reference points in the future of your environment.
5. Strategy Space
Similar to the Scenario space this step will help you to explore your own strategic options. The idea is to intelligently combine your options so that they offer a high internal fit. Internal fit means that for example the new product development, the necessary additional financial resources and the increase in recruiting activities are aligned. The result of this step is a handful of key strategic options that are worth further discussing.
6. Evaluation and decision
Now it is time to map your key strategic options to the most relevant scenarios and to your initially defined goals. The outcome is an animated movie like graphic that helps you to see performance and robustness differences in your strategic options. Your final decision will be a lot easier as you can see the different advantages and trade-offs between your strategic options.
Throughout the complete process it is possible to collect input from different stakeholders with different perspectives. This can be done remotely through a website interface prior to the workshop or during the workshop. This parallel process does not only save time in collecting information, but also supports the overall quality. Quite often one makes the most valueable conclusions after understanding why someone else had a completely different opinion. These coining moments are also very important for the collective understanding of the strategy and the successful implementation later.